Date Range: 17th, November 2025 to 21st, November 2025

Weekly Executive Strip

• Bias: Sideways and bearish pressures are expected to remain dominant in the market.

• Range Focus: 6525–6850. The likelihood of a continued bearish move to test 6525 is higher than a bullish push toward area from 6850 to 6900.

• Key Levels:

  • Soft Resistance: Daily EMA20 near 6800.

  • Hard Resistance: 6850 to 6900, restricted by a converging triangle.

  • Soft Support: 6655, the Week 45 low.

  • Hard Support: 6525 , the bottom of the broader trading range.

• Macro Events:

  • FOMC meeting on Wednesday.

• Actions for Next Monday:

  • 6800 serves as the pivotal level for directional cues from Monday to Wednesday before FOMC, depending on whether the opening price is above or below it. The daily chart shows a converging triangle with higher lows and lower highs. Sideways action has prevailed over the past week, with expanding daily ranges signaling a rising risk of a sharp breakdown in the coming weeks.

    Gap-Up Scenario:

    • If the market opens above 6800 with a confirmed breakout signal, favor longs. Scale back risk near the hard resistance zone (6850–6900). Direct bullish resumption remains unlikely, and any upside should cap below 6900 without forming a sustained uptrend.

    • If the gap-up is minor and fails to hold above 6800, seek short entries at that level on clear setups or strong reversal signals.

    Gap-Down Scenario:

    • Probability of testing soft support at 6655 increases significantly. Aggressively short on confirmed setups or signals. Note that bulls may attempt to defend the channel bottom, but the odds favor an eventual downside break. When shorting, start with a wide stop loss; transition to a trailing stop once bearish momentum confirms to capture maximum gains.

Monthly Outlook

• Trend:

  • Bearish, with the probability of closing the current monthly bar as a bull bar below 50%.

• Patterns:

  • Parabolic climax featuring six consecutive bull bars, followed by an inside bar with a shorter upper tail.

• Key Observations:

  • It is premature to predict the monthly bar’s close with three weeks remaining. However, given the present configuration and historical precedents following six consecutive monthly bull bars, the likelihood of sideways action or a modest reversal persisting through year-end is elevated.

  • The market is likely to trade sideways between Zone 2 and Zone 1 for the next few weeks, retesting the previously broken upper trend line—potentially as early as next week or before Christmas. Absent a decisive reversal back into the larger channel, the uptrend remains intact. Should the upper trend line fail to hold, anticipate a sharp pullback to test the prior breakout zone and even monthly EMA20.

• Levels to Watch:

  • Resistance:

    • Monthly open at ~6877.5. Probability of a bull bar this month remains low for now (to be reassessed at month-end).

  • Support:

    • Soft Support: 6525 (lower boundary of Zone 2)

    • Hard Support: 6242 (prior breakout zone), with further downside risk to the monthly EMA20 at ~5970.

Weekly Outlook

• Trend:

  • Bearish

• Patterns:

  • Shooting star with a bearish body and long shadows on both sides. Lower highs and higher lows are forming a potential converging triangle, signaling an imminent breakout with a slight downward bias.

• Key Observations:

  • The weekly bar closed bearish, finishing just 0.25 points below the Week 45 low. Bulls attempted to regain control after price touched the lower boundary of the tight bull channel. However, if looking at the on the daily chart, two prior breakout attempts from this trading range(6520 to 6800) have failed. Moreover, during last week, bulls began taking profits following the brief bullish reversal at any key levels, while bears entered on any upside pullbacks—resulting in the current mildly bearish price action.

  • Additionally, a correction following an extended trend can often support a healthy continuation of the longer-term uptrend on higher timeframes. In the near term, I expect this correction to persist for a couple of weeks, likely through Christmas.

• Levels to Watch:

  • Resistance:

    • Soft Resistance: Daily EMA20 near 6800.

    • Hard Resistance: 6850–6900, constrained by the converging triangle.

  • Support:

    • Soft Support: 6655 (Week 45 low).

    • Hard Support: 6525 (bottom of the broader trading range).

Daily Outlook

• Trend:

  • Sideways action expected ahead of the FOMC meeting; a hawkish tone (e.g., no rate cut) could trigger a subsequent downtrend.

• Patterns:

  • Converging triangle in formation with higher probability of breaking in down side; price has closed below the daily EMA20 on two occasions.

• Key Observations:

  • Daily ranges are expanding, with the average true range now around 90 points—nearly matching the levels seen just before the major market collapse prior to April's sharp sell-off.

  • Both Monday and Friday formed shooting star bars with long lower tails, highlighting key support zones inside the tight bull channel where bulls step in and bears book profits—a clear consensus level for both sides. However, the upper boundary from last week carries greater significance: bulls have turned cautious, forming lower highs instead of pursuing higher highs. In the 6800–6900 zone, bears initiated shorts while bulls took profits, reinforcing the converging triangle pattern. Combined with the prior analysis, this elevates the probability of downside tests at successive support levels.

• Levels to Watch:

  • Resistance:

    • Soft Resistance: Daily EMA20 near 6800.

    • Hard Resistance: 6850–6900, constrained by the converging triangle.

  • Support:

    • Soft Support: 6655 (Week 45 low).

    • Hard Support: 6525 (bottom of the broader trading range).

5min Reviews for Last Monday

• Good Entries:

  • As noted in the prior post, a gap-up opening already above 6800 called for patience to confirm direction. With Zone 1 expected to act as resistance, waiting for a short entry was prudent—Bar 13 provided a solid trigger. A trailing stop was appropriate initially, but the emergence of strong bullish bars at 30 and 31 invalidates the setup. Reevaluate the bearish assumption and close any short positions immediately.

  • Conversely, the gap-up combined with the decisive bullish bars at 30 and 31 shifts the short-term bias from bearish to bullish. Entering long after Bar 31 is now reasonable, tailing stop here will help the trader to hold to the close of the session.

5min Reviews for Last Tuesday

• Good Entries:

  • With consecutive bullish momentum carrying over from Monday, it’s reasonable to expect continuation toward the one-time measured move target.

  • Despite the gap-down open, the first six bars showed sideways consolidation—traders should remain patient and wait for a confirmed long setup.

  • Bar 21 offers a strong entry trigger; target the measured move at 6880.

  • Bar 24 formed a large rejection at the session high, but with no bearish follow-through, adding to longs or entering above Bar 25 is a valid secondary opportunity.

  • Risk management note: If entering at Bar 21, place the stop at the low of Bar 18—this level has held firm and was never violated, providing a clean risk point.

5min Reviews for Last Wednesday

• Good Entries:

  • Wednesday opened with a clear gap-up. Chasing longs is tempting, but prudence dictates waiting to gauge bullish momentum strength, especially given the higher-timeframe risk of a shift from bullish to sideways.

  • Bars 4 and 9 signal potential bullish exhaustion—shorting below Bar 9 is a valid setup with a trailing stop. Initially, bears might anticipate unlimited downside, but Bars 29, 30, and 31 invalidate the move. Exit shorts immediately to respect the emerging double-bottom pattern and the typical sideways transition phase during timeframe regime shifts.

  • Even if shorts remain open, a stop-loss above Bar 9 would have triggered an automatic exit by Thursday, booking the position safely.

5min Reviews for Last Thursday

• Good Entries:

  • Thursday opens with a gap-down and initial bearish continuation. Shorting below Bar 2 is valid, but a tight stop just above Bar 2 gets hit at Bar 10.

  • Even after being stopped out, short below Bar 10 remains strong—forming a potential double top within the prevailing downtrend and amid a higher-timeframe regime shift. Traders can use a limit order to take profits at Monday’s low, but with bearish bias intact, can hold the position with a trailing stop to maximize gains . The more aggressive target should be the unfilled gap between Monday’s open and Week 45 Friday close.

  • Zooming out to higher timeframes, the 6700 zone (bottom of the tight bull channel) is the high-conviction support target. The Friday’s premarket actually tagged this level, delivering maximum profit potential for shorts initiated at Bar 10.

5min Reviews for Last Friday

• Good Entries:

  • The 6700 defense assumption is confirmed by the strong reversal at Bar 2. With higher-timeframe consensus for trading within the tight bull channel (shared by both bulls and bears), long above Bar 2 is a high-probability entry. Hold with a trailing stop through session end—exit occurs at Bar 40.

  • Critical implication for next week: Once the trailing stop triggers, it signals more than routine profit-taking. In a true tight bull channel with strong consensus, price should not retrace to the trailing stop level. The fact that bulls allow this—despite price still sitting at the channel bottom on the daily—exposes underlying weakness and lack of conviction in trend continuation. This raises the odds of a gap-down open next week, potentially testing lower channel support or breaking the structure entirely.